Royalties Do Petróleo E Emprego Público Nos Municípios Brasileiros

19.7.2012 Vertaisarvioidut julkaisut Lauro Carnicelli, Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali

Abstract

Oil Windfalls and Public Labor Market in the Brazilian Municipalities

The finiteness of oil stocks in nature determines the emergence of critical questions about the correct application of their rents in order to prevent dissipation and society’s welfare loss. Brazilian legislation has been concerned with allocating oil revenues on social development, but case studies have shown that some benefited localities raise their spending on staff. This article aims to understand the issue, using a methodology that allows building a counterfactual for municipalities treated with oil resources. The aim is to investigate whether these transfers lead the benefited municipalities to increase the hiring of civil servants, in disagreement with the legal recommendations. For this, we applied the method Doubly Robust to a panel of municipalities observed between 2000 and 2009. The method consists of two stages. Firstly, it estimates the probability of receiving oil revenues conditioned on observable variables and, in a second stage, a fixed effect panel model was estimated with data belonging to a common support constructed from the estimated propensity scores in the first stage . The results show that local governments raise their workforce due to the enjoyment of oil revenues, but the average payroll expenditure does not increase in the treatment group. In Rio de Janeiro, subject to more specific determinations of its Court of Auditors, the effect is not significant, indicating adherence to the rules by the eligible municipalities.

Note: Downloadable document is in Portuguese.

Julkaisun tiedot

Carnicelli, L., & Postali, F.A.S. (2012), Royalties do petróleo e emprego público nos municípios brasileiros, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo) 44.3 (2014): 469–495.