IMF World Economic Outlook -seminaari: “Wage Dynamics Post-COVID-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks”

5.10.2022 Tapahtuma

Aika: TIISTAI 18.10.2022 klo 11–12

Paikka: Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, Arkadiankatu 7 (Economicumin 4. kerros), neuvotteluhuone B404

Kansainvälisen valuuttarahasto IMF:n vanhempi ekonomisti Philippe Wingender esittelee World Economic Outlook -tiimin tuoretta tutkimusta koronakriisin jälkeisestä palkkojen dynamiikasta kehittyneissä ja kehittyvissä talouksissa. Seminaari on suunnattu sekä aihepiirin asiantuntijoille että kaikille palkkadynamiikkaa käsittelevästä akateemisesta tutkimuksesta kiinnostuneille.

Abstract:

Over 2021, inflation rose markedly in many economies, reflecting a mix of supply- and demand-side drivers as the recovery from the COVID shock proceeded. Although nominal wage growth has so far generally stayed below inflation, some observers have warned that prices and wages could start feeding on each other, with wage and price inflation continually ratcheting up over a sustained period. Aiming to better understand recent wage dynamics and wage-price spiral risks, this chapter first identifies past episodes with similar wage, price, and labor market dynamics to the conjuncture and studies if those episodes led to a wage-price spiral. Second, the chapter presents empirical and model-based analyses of the recent drivers of wage and price development. Third, the chapter uses a forward-looking, model-based scenario analysis to analyze how expectations formation processes shape prospects and interact with monetary policy actions.