Prospects for industry, construction and business services in autumn 2013
The Finnish national economy has been in recession since the final quarter of 2011. It was only in the second quarter of this year that economic growth turned to a slight recovery. In the second half of this year, Finland’s economic growth will remain close to zero. Finland’s total output has developed at the same pace as total output in the eurozone, which likewise emerged from recession in the second quarter of this year. Since then, eurozone growth has again slowed. The growth prospects for Europe and Finland for 2014 and 2015 are, however, reasonable. The fiscal crisis of European states has eased and, at the same time, growth prospects have brightened.
Both eurozone consumer confidence and industrial confidence have risen, indicating that the growth of consumer demand and industrial output may be strengthening. These growth expectations are also incorporated in the international economic growth framework on which both Finland’s macroeconomic forecast and, through it, the sector forecast are based. While European growth towards the end of this year has been slightly weaker than expected, economic growth in developing countries has in turn stabilised at a somewhat faster pace than anticipated. US economic growth has likewise exceeded expectations. The political deadlock in the United States in October, which even led to the temporary shutdown of the federal government, has been partially resolved. All in all, the international economy is feeding through to the Finnish economy broadly in the way anticipated in PT’s September economic forecast.
Finnish economic confidence has not recovered in the same way as eurozone economic confidence. The actual development of Finnish retail trade and industrial output relative to very subdued expectations has, however, been reasonable. (AI translation)
