Prospects for industry, construction and business services in autumn 2015

Finland’s gross domestic product has remained on average at last year’s level in the early part of the year. In the second quarter, gross domestic product grew by 0.2 percent from the previous quarter. In the latter part of 2015, the economic situation has remained fairly stable. Economic growth continues to be slow, almost non-existent, but employment figures have been better than expected. The picture of the economic situation is obscured by the inconsistency of the data reported by Statistics Finland and the large revisions to already published data from the production cycle indicator.

In the international economy, the slowdown in economic growth in developing countries continues. The same applies to North America. But European growth, in turn, appears to be consolidating. In Europe, investment is also recovering, which has a positive effect on Finnish exports.

Recent exchange rate developments are also favouring Finland’s export industry and foreign trade. The euro has continued to weaken against the dollar and, for the first time in a long while, also against the Swedish krona. The rouble is clearly weaker against the euro than it was a year ago. As a counterbalance to this, however, Russia’s rapid inflation and the associated rise in wages is weakening Russia’s competitiveness.

Confidence in Finnish industry remains depressed, although a slight recovery has taken place in the most recent months. In the light of the statistics, an increase in construction activity can, by contrast, already be regarded as certain. In services too, and particularly in information services and in professional, scientific, and technical activities, growth is on a fairly solid footing. The slowest-growing sectors of the national economy — such as the public sector and retail trade reliant on household purchasing power, and certain private services — are not included among the sectors examined in the sector forecast. (AI translation)

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