Prospects for industry, construction and business services in autumn 2012
The year 2012 has also been difficult for Finland’s processing industries, information services, and other business services. The uncertainty generated by Europe’s prolonged debt crisis and the tight fiscal policy of European countries have slowed economic growth in our most important export markets and delayed the realisation of investments more broadly outside Europe as well. As a result of this, output has contracted in several industrial sectors and in construction in Finland. On average, however, output will grow by 1.3 percent this year across the sectors covered by the sector forecast. Finland does nonetheless have the potential for a substantial recovery in total output, if the demand situation improves. The size of the working-age population in the third quarter of 2012 was roughly at the same level as when the financial crisis erupted in the third quarter of 2008. This, together with the recent postponement of retirement, ensures that the supply of labour will not stand in the way of a recovery in output. Low capital utilisation rates and the continuing improvement in productivity are in turn creating the conditions for output to return to the levels of early 2008 and beyond. The stirring of growth outside Europe and a partial easing of the eurozone crisis are supporting a turn for the better in Finland’s economic cycle as well. It is to be expected that in 2013 and 2014 export industries will grow more rapidly in Finland than the rest of the economy. (AI translation)
