A Kink that Makes You Sick: the Effect of Sick Pay on Absence in a Social Insurance System

Working Papers 297 Petri Böckerman, Ohto Kanninen, Ilpo Suoniemi

Abstract

We examine the effect of the replacement rate of a social insurance system on sickness absence by exploiting a regression kink design. The elasticity of absence with respect to the benefit level, in addition to risk preferences, is a critical parameter in defining the optimal sickness insurance scheme. Using a large administrative dataset, we find a robust behavioral response. The statistically significant point estimate of the elasticity of the duration of sickness absence with respect to the replacement rate in a social insurance system is on the order of 1. Given our estimate, we characterize the optimal benefit level.