Economic growth prior to the recession

The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE published its autumn economic forecast on 25 September. According to it, the economy will grow by 0.6 percent and 1.5 percent in the current and coming year respectively. On the basis of this year’s data, GDP growth is estimated to remain narrowly positive. Our forecast rests on relatively stable foreign trade and a recovery in private consumption. The validity of these assumptions is still difficult to assess, but goods exports developed positively in the early part of the year: their volume grew by 6.3 percent in January–September compared with the corresponding period last year. Private consumption remains subdued, although a slight recovery is visible at the quarterly level. Our forecast for next year remains credible, but requires a pick-up in domestic demand on both sides of the turn of the year. (AI translation)

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