Anticipation of personnel needs in health and social services

Abstract

The project examined the current state and development needs of the anticipation of the need for healthcare and social welfare personnel and how this is carried out in certain other countries. The project made projection calculations of how the demand and supply of personnel would develop by 2040. The calculations were performed by supplementing the databases of the social expenditure analysis (SOME) model, which assesses trends in service needs, and the databases of the FINAGE model with employment statistics. The modelling combines the anticipated development of service needs with information on the occupation and education of workers needed.

The supply was assessed by making use of career profiles that describe how many people with the necessary training change their profession or end up unemployed or otherwise outside the labour force. By combining career profiles with the estimates of the size of labour force, the number of degrees and the number of immigrants, it was possible to forecast how the supply of labour would develop. The outcomes are that a demographic change increases the need for services and transforms the structure of services into a more labour-intensive direction. This may lead to a gap between the demand and supply of certain professional groups. However, the need for labour should be reviewed from the perspective of the national economy as a whole.

Publication Information

Honkatukia, J., Suhonen, T., Haula, T., Holster, T., Korajoki, M., Laukkonen, M.-L., Idström, A., Karhunen, H., Nyyssölä, M. & Villanen, J. (2024), Sosiaali- ja terveyspalvelujen henkilöstötarpeen ennakointi, Publications of the Government´s analysis, assessment and research activities 2024:13.

• ISSN: 2342-6799
• ISBN: 978-952-383-348-7