Trade and business services, the tourism and restaurant sector, and industry and construction

Economic outlook 2022–2023

The report examines Labore’s sector forecast for the years 2022–2023 against the backdrop of an exceptionally challenging economic situation.

Two central sources of uncertainty shape the forecast: recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The economy weathered the pandemic better than expected, but the war is affecting the Finnish economy both directly through the collapse of trade with Russia and through indirect effects — such as weakening export demand, inflation, and uncertainty. GDP is forecast to grow by 1.8 percent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023.

The forecast covers approximately 60 percent of all employed persons in the economy as a whole and is based on econometric ARDL, ARIMAX, and VARX models. The model forecasts have had to be adjusted in several sectors due to special factors. The pandemic has probably permanently altered certain structures — the growing prevalence of remote work in particular has wide-ranging effects across different sectors — while for trade with Russia no return to the previous situation is expected. (AI translation)

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