The economy is cooling — assessing the achievement of the employment target is difficult

17.9.2019 Forecast Publications, Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2019 Hannu Karhunen, Heikki Taimio, Ilkka Kiema, Sakari Lähdemäki, Aila Mustonen, Essi Lindberg, Elina Pylkkänen, Julia Niemeläinen

The Labour Institute for Economic Research forecasts economic growth in Finland of 1.3 percent this year and 1.1 percent next year. The biggest drag on growth is the slowdown in private consumption growth. On the other hand, exports will grow somewhat faster than anticipated this year, by four percent, and still by two percent next year. Growth in productive investment will continue at a moderate pace, but a decline in construction will turn private investment as a whole to a slight decrease next year. The achievement of the government’s targets of a 75 percent employment rate and balanced public finances by 2023 is difficult to assess, as these targets have been defined in structural terms and the various methods for assessing them may produce very different results. (AI translation)